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March 10, 2010  
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Consolidation or Retracement?

The S&P 500 has completed an oversold bounce from its 200-day exponential moving average, regaining over 60% of its loss from the January 19th high.   Is the correction over?  There are three credible scenarios for where we are headed next, (a) the July 2009 scenario of a rapid resumption of the 2009 rally, (b) the 2004 scenario of a protracted consolidation of gains in a narrow trading range, or (c) the Elliott Wave scenario of a 50-100% retracement of the gains from the March 2009 lows.  While the 2004 scenario seems the most likely, there are a substantial number of domestic and international events that have the potential of triggering a significant market retracement.

Rally Threatened

 The S&P 500 has broken down through important technical levels on increasing volume and weakening breadth, suggesting that this consolidation may extend deeper and longer than many expected.   With a bearish turn in intermediate-term indicators, the possibility of a more protracted correction looms, potentially signaling the beginning of the first real retracement of the 2009 gains.  This rough start in 2010 is threatening the rally that the equity markets have enjoyed from the March 2009 lows


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Joerger Financial Mangement, Inc. was founded to offer investment strategies that have the capacity to generate absolute returns in both bull and bear market cycles.  Joerger Financial specializes in technical trading strategies applied to the S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Index options. 

Central to the Joerger Financial investment strategies is the observation that there has been a material change in the U.S. equity market investment climate over the past ten years.   In the long sustained growth period from 1982 to 2000, patient long-only investors were rewarded with excellent returns.  Market challenges during this period, while sharp, were resolved with v-shaped recoveries and a quick return to growth.  Over the last five years of this period from 1994 to 2000, the U.S.'s "accomodative policies" accelerated growth to extreme levels, but, unfortunately, created the environment that we now face. 

The investing climate for U.S. equities has not been kind over the past decade.  The S&P 500 has lost over 29% of its value from 2000 to 2009 and is currently trading at 1998 levels.   For even the most prescient that may have entered the market at either the 2003 or 2009 bottom, average annual returns have been under 4% excluding dividends.  

It is unknown whether the current investing climate will continue, whether we will return to the investing climate of the 1980s and 1990s, or whether a new investing climate will emerge.   The only way to navigate this uncertainty is to pursue investing strategies that are nimble and capable of achieving absolute returns in up and down markets.

The Joerger Financial investment strategies were developed to provide sophisticated investors with an opportunity to acheive absolute returns from the U.S. equity markets independent of investment climate. 


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Many portofolios have long-term positions in equity or fixed income securities that can be leveraged with stock and index option strategies to enhance returns without incurring margin costs.   Whether your goal is overall portfolio protection, single stock or sector hedging, or just enhanced returns, Joerger Capital can design and implement customized strategies to meet the your individual return objectives and risk tolerances. 

For more information about how to improve your portfolio performance, please contact us.


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